Stagflation Concerns, Creating Content, & More

release edition [035]

read time [6 minutes]

Welcome to The Multifamily Download, a weekly newsletter where I provide institutional insights to help you build an exceptional Multifamily career.

Today at a Glance:

Stagflation: Why I'm Not Concerned
Content: 5 Tips for Writing Online
Poll: Can I Count on Your Vote? (10 secs)
Weekly Listen: Fred Leeds

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Jobs

By now you've probably seen the abysmal August jobs report.

If you haven't, here's a quick recap:

Non-farm payroll +22K
Unemployment rose to +4.3%
U-6 unemployment rose to +8.1%
More downward revisions of May & June

But when digging a layer deeper, the reality of today's job market starts to become more clear.

Full time jobs -357K
Part time jobs +597K

To make matters worse, there are now more unemployed people than available jobs (see chart below).

And this is despite the A.I. revolution still in the early innings.

The resulting headlines that you'll be reading in the weeks to come will be about stagflation risks.

To justify these risks, many will point back to the late 1970s Volcker era of Monetary policy and conclude that the Fed should maintain the current Fed Funds Rate (or even hike rates) to put put downward pressure on inflation since we still have positive job growth and sub-4.5% unemployment.

But, this Volcker-style approach may not be the appropriate way to think about stagflation risk in today's economy.

Instead, I'd like to present an alternative approach to the stagflation narrative.

Disclaimer: Please DYOR ("do your own research") and formulate your own conclusions. I'm not here to tell you what to think, but rather to suggest alternatives to the mainstream narratives in case this fresh perspective could give you a competitive advantage over the competition.

To start, the current economy and late 1970s economies are structurally different. GDP in the 70s was comprised of ~60% service and ~25% manufacturing, where as the American economy today is ~80% service and just 8% manufacturing. America imports goods and exports knowledge today. In my view, this creates far more employment risk than inflation risk, because other countries are incentivized to keep prices competitive for American consumers. As such, real GDP growth has a far better chance of occurring if rates are lower, all else equal, because service-based employers can borrow to hire, acquire via M&A, confidently issue stock via IPO, etc.

Secondly, many of the supply-side shocks that were caused by COVID are still being felt today. Small businesses take time to recover (if they ever do), and many small businesses were obliterated by the COVID shutdowns. This led to a consolidation of consumer spending and the rapid growth of corporate profits (see below).

Side note: This graph is one reason why we haven't seen meaningful inflation from tariffs.

Thirdly, the United States has been running an extreme trade deficit for an extended period of time.

This imbalance exports dollars and imports goods. The result is that the world owns a disproportionate share of U.S. dollars, which they can spend in their country's economy and/or invest back into American assets like stocks, bonds, or Real Estate. Not surprisingly, the U.S. economy suffers as a result. (Remember the multiplier effect?)

Even Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) has produced a 5,502,284% total return (19.9% compounded) since 1964, warned about the implications of this trade deficit back in 2005 (video clip linked here).

What does this mean?

1. The U.S. Dollar isn't going anywhere

The result of this trade deficit is that there are U.S. Dollars scattered all across the world, as it is still the global reserve currency. This is one reason why Bond yields have been so low for so long despite the persistent budget deficits.

2. Unemployment risk > inflation risk

The service-based U.S. economy is far better positioned to sustain higher inflation than lower employment. COVID was an anomalous event that had a rare combination of both supply- and demand-shocks. It's incredibly unlikely that we'll see low supply + high demand for physical goods in a low rate environment anytime soon. Said differently, advances in technology and education will allow for outsized growth, even in the face of inflationary pressures. (i.e. "Real GDP Growth").

3. The Fed to find R*

Because of the two preceding points, it would appear that the U.S. economy would be well served if the Fed elected to resume it's cutting cycle and find R*, or the neutral rate, where employment can grow such that real GDP and real wage growth can also occur without inducing inflation.

Here's my 2-cents:

The reality of today's economy is that embedded inflation is unlikely to disappear due to money printing and fiscal budget deficits. But, the Fed is only making inflation worse by keeping rates high, because this forces the U.S. government to print excess money to service it's debt obligations. The 2-yr UST was 3.51% yesterday with the 10-yr UST nearly hitting 4.00%. Clearly, U.S. Treasuries are still seen as a flight to safety in the face of a wobbly economy (re: August jobs report), and many bond investors believe that yields will continue to drop, which is why they're buying today. Higher rates are causing inflation, and I think there's a strong chance that, once short-term rates reach R* (2.5% - 2.75%), real GDP growth will boom AND inflation will surprise to the downside. Side note: Look at the Fed Funds Rate from 2010-2020. Where was inflation then?

Time will tell, and as I like to say, I'm not an economist, so I welcome your thoughts or opinions.

Lastly, if you're curious, here's what A.I. had to say about the 1970s economy compared to today's 2020s economy:

The 1970s U.S. economy was manufacturing-driven, with high unemployment and inflation fueled by oil shocks and loose policy, leading to stagflation. The 2020s economy is service-dominated, with low unemployment, moderating inflation, and uneven growth driven by pandemic recovery dynamics. The shift to services reduces exposure to industrial shocks but introduces new risks from wage-driven inflation in high-skill sectors. Based on the July 2025 jobs data (proxy for August) and elevated CPI, stagflation risk in 2025 is low to moderate. Persistent service sector inflation and potential growth slowdowns warrant monitoring, but the economy’s resilience and policy tools make a 1970s-style crisis unlikely.

Read the full August jobs report here.

Content

One piece of the equation to becoming exceptional in the Multifamily industry is becoming known.

After all, people can't do business with you unless they know you. Obvious, right?

Historically, becoming known required cold calling and in-person networking events such as trade shows or happy hours.

But, creating content is an almost unavoidable element of becoming known in today's digital-first world.

I'm still relatively early on my "content creation" journey, but it's been an awesome journey so far these past two years.

In that time, I have grown to nearly ~10,000 LinkedIn followers organically, reached 269K+ people in the last year or so (despite taking 4 months off this summer), created countless industry connections, and many real-life friendships.

Today, I'd like to share a few things that I've learned in case they're helpful.

1. Consistency is king.

It's cliche, but it's true. The law of averages means taking more swings will create more opportunities. Today, I have a decent idea of which posts will do well, but I'm often still surprised. Continuing to show up is a good business strategy.

2. Give, give, give, ask.

I very rarely ask anything of my audience on LinkedIn. 95% of the time I provide free detailed analyses of market trends, the economy, or other interesting observations with no strings attached.

3. Learn from others.

By showing up daily, I have the ability to learn from other industry professionals. This creates a "public community" of sorts, and allows me the opportunity to frequently refine my thinking and sharpen my ax.

4. New deal flow.

I get DMs and emails from people with buying opportunities simply because they saw me on LinkedIn. As it turns out, putting yourself out there leads to more opportunities. Crazy, right?

5. Definitive perspective.

Before I started writing publicly, I had very little incentive to both formulate and defend my own thinking. Now, I am using my critical thinking brain every day by taking in new information, filtering it, deciding what I think about it, and why. Writing publicly creates conviction better than almost anything else.

I have tons of other thoughts to share, but I'll stop here for today.

Let me know if you'd like to hear more on how I'm thinking about building my online brand.

Poll

I'm beginning to work on my next project and I want to make sure it's tailored to serving you, so I'd greatly appreciate your feedback.

Can you please take 10 seconds to vote below?

And, if you're willing, please hit "reply" to share any added context that might be helpful.

Thank you in advance!

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Weekly Listen

This week's listen is the most recent "No Vacancy" episode, hosted by Taylor Avakian and featuring guest Fred Leeds.

Fred shares his one-of-a-kind journey — from his first duplex purchase to cold-calling strategies, creative financing, and transformative inner-city projects, as well as his mindset and work ethic that turned opportunities into generational wealth.

You can listen to the full episode here.