A.I. Adoption & The September Surplus

release edition [041]

read time [5 minutes]

Welcome to The Multifamily Download, a weekly newsletter where I provide institutional insights to help you build an exceptional Multifamily career.

Today at a Glance:

A.I.: Is Now The Time?
U.S. Gov: Budget Surplus
Weekly Listen: Joe Pizzutelli

A.I.

Blackstone recently called A.I. the "main thing" for 2025, and it's easy to see why.

Ever since the launch of ChatGPT by Open AI in late 2022, LLMs, or large language models, have been focal points for both businesses and individuals.

It's been incredible to see how far these LLMs have come over the past few years.

The future is rapidly approaching.

For many of us in Multifamily, the next 6-12 months feel like they could be "make or break" when it comes to A.I. adoption and accelerating future successes into the present.

Whether you're excited or fearful about A.I., it's coming, so now is the time to start embracing it.

Until now, my perspective has been relatively passive towards A.I., especially in the workplace.

But, as I begin to think more critically about the future of work, my view is shifting.

Here are a few things that I'm thinking about currently in October 2025:

1. A.I. = More, Better, Faster

If I can do more work, of higher quality, and faster with A.I. than without it, then why wouldn't I use it?

To me, this is the line of thinking or "ah hah!" moment that many business leaders will inevitably wake up with one day soon if they haven't already.

And when they do, I expect hiring to continue slowing as companies aim to "re-tool" their existing workforce to be more efficient with the utilization of A.I.

I expect the trend of slower hiring and slower firing to continue until the Fed Funds Rate is back at r* (2.50% - 2.75%), which will then allow businesses to rationalize the expansion of their workforces once again.

2. Smaller = Bigger

With A.I., smaller teams will be able to grow bigger companies than they otherwise could without A.I.

My current guess is that this will equate to 2x-3x the output or growth without having to grow headcount.

And, because human capital is often the largest line-item expense for a business, human capital is the most vulnerable.

If recurring and repeated tasks can be automated, and communications from top company executives to the bottom "doers" can be streamlined, then there will inevitably be less demand for "middle management" translators.

3. Data Privacy Concerns

The industry peers that I've spoken to about A.I. to this point all share similar concerns around data privacy.

Understanding how LLMs (ChatGPT by OpenAI, Claude by Anthropic, Grok by xAI, Gemini by Google) will allow for data privacy and security will determine the corporate adoption rate of these A.I. tools.

My sense is that these LLM platforms will inevitably sell Enterprise-grade options to companies (if they don't already) in exchange for an "opt out" to using the company's sensitive and private data for broader A.I. data training.

Because let's face it: The last thing any of us wants is for a competitor to use our proprietary data or strategies against us in the marketplace.

4. Building A Foundation

One of the daunting factors in this new post-A.I. world is figuring out both (a) where to start and (b) how to learn efficiently.

It feels like there are bottomless black holes of A.I. information and limited use cases that are efficiently achievable.

This is what I thought, too, until I started playing with Zapier and Claude this week.

I quickly found that the A.I. tools are capable of teaching (and doing) the next step in the building process, which is both remarkable and quite disarming.

My advice: Build a foundation of knowledge and tools by researching and testing them.

Then, once you know which ones are right for you, start piecing them together based on the use cases that would be most impactful for your business.

5. Tools I'm Testing & Exploring

Lastly, I thought it might be helpful to share some of the tools that I'm currently testing and exploring.

(Disclaimer: I do not currently benefit if you choose to use any of the links below).

LLMs

Automations

Vibe Coding

Reply and let me know your thoughts about A.I.

What tools are you using? How are you thinking about A.I.?

U.S. Government

The month of September was a positive one for the U.S. Treasury.

In fact, the U.S. federal government earned $198.0B more than it spent in September, reversing from the prior month's $345.0B deficit, and the first budget surplus since June's $27B gain.

The government's fiscal-year 2025 deficit stood at $1.78T, down from $1.82T in FY24.

While it's not meaningful or material, a slowing expansion of our budget deficit from 2024 to 2025 is encouraging.

Of note, it was remarkable to see the swing from a $345B deficit in August to a $198B surplus in September, which comes out to a $543 billion month-over-month difference.

August 2025:

Receipts: $344B
Outlays: $689B

September 2025:

Receipts: $544B
Outlays: $346B

Biggest shifts:

Medicare: $141B → $32B (–$109B)
Net Interest: $93B → $37B (–$56B)
Veterans’ Benefits: $50B → $17B (–$33B)
Individual Income Taxes: $153B → $298B (+$145B)
Corporate Taxes: $3B → $62B (+$59B)

This monumental swing was driven by quarterly tax inflows and Fiscal Year-end spending drops.

While I recognize that this is unlikely to be sustained in the short term, it demonstrates that things are happening in the background that have the potential to be beneficial to the U.S. Government's typical spending woes.

Do you think we'll see the Government operate a Fiscal Year surplus ever again?

I'm hopeful that the answer to this question is yes, but I'm only cautiously optimistic, as a $1.78T deficit is a lot to erase while keeping tax rates flat.

Weekly Listen

This week's listen is Episode 10 from Brandon Roth's Recap podcast with guest Joe Pizzutelli of M&T Realty Capital Corporation.

In this episode, they discuss various lending programs, loan modifications, and an outlook for 2026.

You can listen to the full episode here.

Wrap Up

That's it for this week. I hope you found this edition of The Multifamily Download insightful and enjoyable.

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