2025 Rent Growth & Preparing For 2026

release edition [048]

read time [7 minutes]

Welcome to The Multifamily Download, a weekly newsletter where I provide institutional insights to help you build an exceptional Multifamily career.

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Today at a Glance:

• Rent Growth: 2025 in Review
• 2026: How I'm Preparing
• Feedback: 5 Quick Questions
• Weekly Listen: Jeffrey Gundlach

Rent Growth

Nearly one year ago on January 19th I shared the image below on this LinkedIn post in which I predicted that 2025 would be the year of supply.

If you were a reader of The Multifamily Download at that time (thank you for sticking around, btw!), then you would have also received TMD 003, in which I elaborated on my view of the upcoming 2025 calendar year, when I wrote:

Now that 2025 has nearly concluded, and since we have some data through November, let's see how this chart above has played out in 2025.

Below are the markets with the deepest rent cuts for the year-ending November 2025, according to RealPage.

Of note, the following markets severely underperformed the RealPage predictions.

• Las Vegas: Expected 3.4% to average. Actual (-3.2%).
• Nashville: Expected 2.5% average. Actual (-3.3%).
• Denver: Expected below average. Actual (-7.6%).

On the contrary, the following markets (shown below) matched or beat the RealPage predictions.

• San Francisco: Expected 2.5% average. Actual +6.6%.
• New York: Expected below average. Actual +3.8%.
• St. Louis: Expected below average. Actual +2.3%.

It's noteworthy that the National Average annual rent change year-over-year through November is (-0.7%), a far cry from the RealPage prediction of +2.5% as shown in the above 2025 forecast chart.

I share the above not to throw stones, but to highlight the reality of the business that we find ourselves in; knowing how to predict, and then actually predicting, where the proverbial puck is going is incredibly difficult.

Because of this difficulty, I have learned over the years that betting on outsized rent growth to make an acquisition pencil is not an intelligent way to "invest", especially in an unbalanced, higher supply market environment.

The beauty of investing in Multifamily is that the next 12-24 months of supply are typically known or knowable, because of the inherent time delay from permitting a new project to it getting completed and eventually leasing up.

The last table I'll share from RealPage on this topic is below.

As you'll see, an interesting demand conundrum is rapidly unfolding.

3Q25 Annual Demand is outpacing 3Q25 Annual Supply by ~162K units, and yet, the annual rent change is (-0.7%) nationally.

However, the 3Q25 Quarterly Demand is trailing the 3Q25 Quarterly Supply by ~63K, or 252K units annualized.

How do we reconcile these two statements of fact simultaneously?

Here's one theory:

Demand in 1H 2025 was overstated, due to hidden impacts of elevated concessions and leasing specials that created the appearance of strong net new absorption.

Another theory is simply the softening economy, in that more people are doubling up, moving home, or renting a single family home at a relatively strong value proposition from an owner with a 2.5% interest rate that just wants to cover their mortgage so they don't have to sell the home.

This is why I wrote about "incentivized demand" in TMD 033, which I titled "Return of The Dove, Hidden Demand Risks, & More".

Look, I don't pretend to have this Multifamily business all figured out (far from it, in fact). But what I do know is that trends and bottom-up data points don't lie.

I have the benefit of operating Multifamily properties in multiple regions, so I can compare and contrast the real-time trends that I'm observing geographically from both a supply and demand standpoint.

I think this theme of softening demand is one worth watching carefully heading into 2026.

I definitely will.

2026

If you know me, then you know I enjoy the process of reflecting on the year past, and vision casting for the year ahead.

A lot can be accomplished in one year's time, and this newsletter is a testament to that reality.

The Multifamily Download's readership has grown by more than 2.5x YTD, and it could eclipse 3.0x by year-end.

First and foremost, this is a responsibility that I don't take lightly. It's why I am up until nearly midnight on most Friday evenings researching, writing, and editing this newsletter. (And it's probably why I always write more than I intended!)

I expect to deliver an exceptional reading experience for you in exchange for 5-10 minutes of your time, so I hope I've delivered on that in 2025.

To that end, I'm extremely grateful for your support! As a way to say thank you, I'm opening my calendar so that we can talk strategy and explore ways to help one another in 2026. You can book a free call here.

Now, properly preparing for 2026 is more than writing goals and listening to Ed Mylett podcasts.

It takes a thoughtful approach, honest reflection, and intentional planning.

Here's what I'm doing to prepare. Feel free to steal this in you think it will be helpful.

1. Annual Reflection + Goal Setting

Find a template that contains introspective questions that will allow you to deeply and genuinely reflect on 2025. What went well, what went wrong, what you learned, and how you'll change in 2026 are all great places to start. If you want my curated list of 40+ question prompts, feel free to get them here. (It's a free Google Sheet).

2. Accountability + Commonality

The fastest way to achieving what you truly desire is to get around others that desire the same thing(s).

This is why I got into the Multifamily business, because I knew that I wanted to eventually own apartments in some form or fashion.

If you don't already, I would encourage you to find a group of peers (not mentors or mentees) that you can lock arms with to pursue your ambitions alongside. This creates social pressure and inherent accountability, and it's why personal coaching and masterminds can be super powerful.

Now, these people don't have to want exactly what you want, but they should be generally rowing their boat in the same direction that you're rowing yours. This directionally similar ambition creates commonality, whereby you can support and empathize with one another along the way.

I'm considering launching and leading a community (online + IRL) to connect you with other readers of The Multifamily Download together for the purpose of learning, growing, and networking with other Multifamily professionals nation-wide.

So, here's my question to you:

3. Systems + Leverage

The last (and potentially most important) piece of the equation are to add systems and leverage.

I'm not perfect at this by any means, but in the age of A.I., anything is possible.

Finding ways to eliminate, automate, or delegate work flows so that you can spend your most valuable asset (time) on the things that matter most to you.

For me, I truly enjoy the process of writing, so I write all my LinkedIn posts and newsletters manually using my brain.

(I laughed as I typed that).

But, because I enjoy the time consuming process of writing, I don't have a ton of time to spend on non-writing tasks like idea capture, editing, or researching.

This is why I built The CRE Research Vault, so that I could have hundreds of resources at my fingertips whenever I need them.

Whether you use Notion, Google Drive, pen and paper, or a calendar, the point is to find tools that increase your output per unit of time (leverage) in a way that feels effortless (systems).

Survey

As 2025 is coming to a close, I would greatly appreciate your feedback.

My top priority in 2026 is to give you more of the content that you find most valuable, so your feedback quite literally helps me help you.

Thank you, again, for being a reader of The Multifamily Download.

I hope we get the chance to speak on a call or meet in person soon.

Until then, please consider sharing The Multifamily Download with a friend or colleague that you think would enjoy it. Simply send them this link.

Lastly, please don't hesitate to hit "reply" to send me an email. I read them all, and I will do my best to respond.

What are you excited about in 2026?

Let me know!

Weekly Listen

This week's listen is a recent interview of Jeffrey Gundlach on CNBC.

If you're not familiar, Gundlach known on the Street as the "Bond King", and his firm, Doubleline Capital, has nearly $90B in assets under management. He takes a pragmatic approach to making sense of the Fed's recent policy adjustment, and how he's positioning as a result.

You can listen to the full episode here.

Wrap Up

That's it for this week. I hope you found this edition of The Multifamily Download insightful and enjoyable.

If so, would you consider sharing it with a friend or colleague?

Simply send them this link.

I always welcome your feedback. Reply and let me know what you'd like to see in the future.

Thanks for reading. See you next week!

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