release edition [061] read time [6 minutes] Welcome to The Multifamily Download, a weekly newsletter where I provide institutional insights to help you build an exceptional Multifamily career. Forwarded this email? Subscribe here. Today at a Glance:
HousingYesterday, President Trump signed not one but two Executive Orders aimed at housing affordability. Together they address two different parts of the same problem. One of the Executive Orders targets credit access [linked here]. It directs the CFPB to streamline mortgage rules, modernize appraisal requirements, and expand digital closing tools. It also calls on federal banking regulators to encourage community banks back into construction lending, a segment many stepped away from after Dodd-Frank compliance costs made it difficult to justify. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were separately directed to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to help drive down borrowing costs. The other Executive Order targets supply directly [linked here]. It directs the EPA and Army Corps of Engineers to review and revise storm water and wetlands permitting requirements that delay construction. It also calls on federal agencies to streamline environmental reviews, curtail prescriptive green building mandates, and incentivize state and local governments to speed up permitting. (For context, the Council of Economic Advisors estimates that green energy mandates embedded in certain state building codes can add more than $30,000 to the cost of a single home). Government regulation at all levels added over $90,000 to the average price of a new single-family home in 2021. Taken together, the administration is pulling two levers simultaneously:
That combination is more meaningful than either EO on its own. Credit access without supply tends to inflate prices, and supply without accessible financing tends to leave inventory sitting.
If both of these Executive Orders move in the right direction, then the conditions for a more functional housing market are likely to improve over time. The question worth considering is how much of this translates from policy intent to real-world construction activity. Permitting reform at the federal level can only accomplish so much when the most restrictive barriers tend to live at the state and local level. Zoning, density restrictions, and neighborhood opposition are not EO-solvable problems. Federal incentives for states that adopt best practices are a step in the right direction, but whether states respond meaningfully remains to be seen. For Multifamily owners and investors, there are a few things worth monitoring as this plays out. First, if permitting and construction costs come down meaningfully over a multi-year horizon, more single-family supply (both for-sale and rental) could enter the market, which increases competition for Multifamily properties. Separately, lower (or flat) construction costs also improve the economics of Multifamily development, which has been largely frozen by elevated land, labor, and financing costs since 2023. Both of the above scenarios have important implications for investors: Market selection will be supremely important, and avoiding markets that are or could become over-supplied will be critically important. In the near term, the January EO restricting institutional investors owning 350 or more homes from purchasing most single-family properties is one worth keeping an eye on. It's clear that the current administration is focused on improving housing affordability, so it's worth watching how this final bill outlining the institutional ban reads, and how it is implemented or enforced.
Summary Yesterday's two housing EOs address credit access and supply constraints simultaneously, a more comprehensive approach than either policy alone. The supply-side EO, targeting permitting delays, environmental reviews, and green building mandates, is the more structurally significant of the two for the housing market long term. For Multifamily operators, the near-term impact is likely limited, but the policy direction and the institutional SFR buyer ban together are worth keeping a close eye on throughout 2026. DemographicsThere's a demand story that almost nobody is telling. Much of the Multifamily conversation in 2026 has centered on supply, including units delivering, overbuilt markets, and when full absorption may finally occur. While these conversations are warranted, the demand side is simultaneously worth careful consideration, because the air appears to be rapidly escaping the proverbial balloon from a demographics perspective. Yardi Matrix's February 2026 National Report was released this week, and the demographic data inside it is worth a careful read. According to the report, the U.S. population grew by just 1.8 million between July 2024 and July 2025, the slowest pace since the pandemic, and a notable drop from the prior year's 3.2 million. The sources of that slowdown appear structural rather than temporary as international immigration fell to 1.3 million in 2024-25, a 54% decline from 2.7 million the prior year. Given current enforcement trends, Yardi expects continued pressure on the immigration figures. Meanwhile, the U.S. birth rate hit a record low in 2025, with 3.6 million births representing just 1.06% of the population, per Census Bureau data. Domestic migration is slowing too. State-to-state moves totaled roughly 550,000 in 2025, below the historical average for the second consecutive year, and well off the 1 million-plus years of 2022 and 2023. The Sun Belt figures are rather staggering. From their 2022 peaks, domestic in-migration is down in each of the states below by meaningful percentages:
The markets that were absorbing new supply on the back of strong in-migration are now absorbing that same supply with a fraction of the demand tailwind that originally supported the underwriting. This is why investing in "growth markets" amid elevated supply can be far riskier than many investors realize. The February rent growth data (shown below) reflects this challenging reality. New York is up 4.2% year-over-year. San Francisco up 3.6%. Chicago up 3.5%. Meanwhile, Austin sits at -5.2%, Phoenix at -3.6%, Denver and Tampa both at -3.2%. As I first wrote in TMD 039 and revisited most recently in TMD 060, supply discipline and durable demand bases have mattered more than business-friendliness in this cycle. The demographic data seems to be adding another layer to that story. A few things worth considering as we near the end of Q1 2026: 1/ Migration-dependent demand assumptions built in 2021-2023 may be worth revisiting under a materially slower migration environment. 2/ Workforce housing in immigration-dependent submarkets is likely carrying far more structural demand risk than it did two years ago. 3/ The Midwest, which is not glamorous, is quietly printing consistent positive rent growth thanks to limited new supply and demand bases that generally are not tied to migration trends. As Yardi wrote in their February report: "Multifamily operators could be forced to plan for a slower-demand world." That framing is one worth carefully considering heading into the Spring leasing season. Summary Yardi's February report shows U.S. population growth at a post-pandemic low, driven by a 54% drop in immigration and a record-low birth rate. Sun Belt domestic migration has collapsed from its 2022 peak. These trends are already showing up in rent growth data across markets. Today's demand assumptions are dramatically different than during the 2021-2023 era. Weekly ListenThis week's listen is the latest Walker Webcast with Willy Walker and Dr. Peter Linneman, recorded live at the University of Miami's Real Estate Impact Conference. Among the various topics discussed, Dr. Linneman pushes back on the idea that recent jobs data captures the full picture of the U.S. economy, and he and Willy discuss why the Fed may still have rate cuts ahead, both of which connect directly to the housing policy and demand themes in this week's issue. You can listen to the full episode here. Wrap UpThat's it for today. I hope you found this edition of The Multifamily Download insightful. Consider sharing this link to The Multifamily Download with a friend or colleague. Your feedback is appreciated, so feel free to reply anytime. Thanks for reading. See you next week! Forwarded this email? Sign up here. Join me on LinkedIn | Twitter | Website |
The Multifamily Download · March 14, 2026
New Housing Policy & Demand Trends Worth Watching
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